A Great Opportunity To Top Up On Silver & Gold

January 21, 2010 by PreciousMetalInvestment.com
The stock market has taken a substantial fall in the last two days. The question is whether this is due to the dawning realization by investors that they have been living in a fantasy world.

A world where governments can spend tax payers money in advance and play catch up with the printing presses in order to cure their economic ills to the instant benefit of all. Maybe tomorrow normal service will be resumed and optimism, however misplaced, will return for a few more weeks or months fuelled by the lies and misrepresentations of our leaders and their minions.

But every cloud has a silver lining as physical gold-bullish-news/”>gold and silver together with their producers have been caught up in this stock market fall. This presents a great opportunity, perhaps the last for a while, to top up on silver & gold, the two very precious metals that can realize their profit potential to our benefit in these very troubled times.

Whether stocks in general fall or rise in the short or long term, the outlook for gold and silver as a hedge against inflation, store of value etc.,etc., is looking better almost day by day!

Short of cash or not entirely convinced then look at the silver July $20 call for iShares Silver Trust (SLVGS). We have just bought contracts at $0.95 which looks to us a bargain given all the bad news around and the temporary hardening of the dollar because the Euro, the Cable and others are looking just about as sickly.

China may or not be a bubble about to burst, we do not know but are they going to unload their gold in preference to their dollars? We think not!

India is reported to be likely to increase substantially its gold purchases as they get used to the higher prices and scrap recycling is drying up. There is no sign of their traditional feelings for the metal being eroded. It is/was more getting used to the new price plateau reached in 2009. It is probable that they will have to get familiar with substantially higher prices by the time the next wedding season arrives in August.

Tomorrow may bring an even better opportunity to get in on gold and silver but those option prices look to good to miss out on right now. In case of any doubt we are not including Platinum and other PGMs in this recommendation. Our earlier article explains why.
Stick to silver and gold.
Sumber:http://www.preciousmetalinvestment.com/news/top-up-on-silver-gold/

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Silver Versus Gold

Silver is more volatile than Gold and riskier. It also provides a more substantial upside potential. Classic case of increasing risk to potentially increase reward. I hold some physical silver, but hold much more Gold. Silver can sometimes lag Gold substantially for decent periods of time and then rapidly play catch up. Because I believe we are on the cusp of an explosive run higher in all things precious and metal, I am growing more interested in looking at silver. See yesterday's post regarding the CEF:$GOLD ratio as well.


Gold miners tend to make big bull runs at the same time as silver, as Gold stocks are riskier than Gold and tend to thrive when speculative spirits are running high, so silver and Gold miners can at times be imperfect proxies for one another. My biggest Gold mining holding right now is the GDXJ junior Gold mining ETF. I use this as a way to help diversify away company-specific risk in the sector, since I am not a mining expert, and to get exposure to a basket of smaller cap Gold mining stocks. I use leverage on a portion of my GDXJ holdings via call options. I also hold several smaller Gold miners outright that may or may not be a part of GDXJ's holdings.

My physical metal is not for sale at anywhere near current prices, but I trade the miners, I don't hold them. I may regret this down the road, but I continue to look to trade most of my mining stocks rather than hold them. Anyway, I have been bullish on silver for a while now, after being erroneously bearish on silver last summer and early fall. The impressive breakout in Gold in the fall changed my mind. I thought deflation would get a chance to maul silver a little more, but now I am not so sure. Several trillion dollars in monopoly money debt can perhaps buy a little more time than I thought...

Those who claim that silver lagging Gold means the move in Gold is fake-out I think are wrong. I would like to show them exactly how wrong they may be.

Witness a portion of the 1970s Gold run (chart stolen from sharelynx.com and defiled with my scribbling):



And here's what happened with silver in the 1970s (also courtesy of chartsrus.com):



Now, most who have studied the last precious metals bull market know what happened next: Gold went up 3-4 times from 1979 to 1980 and silver went up 9-10 fold, both reaching their peaks in early 1980. Now I am not saying we are on the threshold of "the" final move in this secular bull market. But I do believe silver may surprise many here, explode higher and outperform Gold. I wonder what the new uber-bearish Elliott Wave International wave count on silver would be if silver makes new highs this year?

Another example from more recent history can be found in the 2002-2003 time frame. Here's a daily Gold chart during the period of interest with my comments regarding the similarities to current conditions:



Now, during this time, silver did poorly. Here's the silver chart from the exact same time frame:



And, of course, my favorite game: "here's what came next." First, the Gold price:



Next, what came next in the silver price over the same period:



There's a good chance we are headed for a replay of this 2002-2004 scenario in my opinion. Gold's movement in this secular bull market has been much more methodical and gradual compared with the 1970s. The reason is simple: Gold has been "managed" this time around. Even Paul Volcker has openly admitted he failed to "control" Gold's rise in the 1970s and that this was a mistake. This is the lesson learned from the last Gold bull market! Not that paper money is unstable and unfair, not that deficits matter, but that the Gold price should be "managed." I laugh every time Volcker is trotted out as a messenger for reform and as a voice of "sanity" among the banksta community. Yes, in the land of the blind, I suppose the one-eyed man is king - but give me a break.

This quote of the month from Adrian Douglas (in another great GATA article exposing the market manipulation that is getting worse rather than better in the Gold and silver markets) matches my thoughts precisely:

"If the U.S. government has a budget of $3.8 trillion and supposedly governs a $10 trillion economy, yet five commercial banks control $198 trillion of derivatives, who do you think really runs the country?"


I remain bullish on all things shiny and precious, both for the intermediate term and the longer term.
Sumber:http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/2010/02/silver-versus-gold.html

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Silver Striker: Massive Silver Mine Running Beneath Great Wall?

Today’s holiday look is at a silver mining company with a mother lode strike in China … this time, the tease is from the Sound Profits newsletter by the Investors Daily Edge folks, and they would, of course, be delighted to have you subscribe to their newsletter to find out who this “Silver Striker” company is. Here’s how they tease the stock:

“Strike runs hundreds of miles… contains up to 30 billion ounces worth $514 billion…

“Could send shares of this American miner soaring 4,662% starting next month…

“Hundreds of miles south of Beijing…

“Deep in the remote foothills beneath the Great Wall of China…

“An American junior mining company has made an amazing discovery.

“This silver strike stretches 186 miles. It could contain, by our estimates, 30.2 billion ounces of silver.

“That’s enough to feed world demand for the next 32 years, according to the World Silver Survey…

“Enough to double current global stockpiles… 214 times.

“And enough to make one tiny mining company $514 billion richer…

“For now, the company trades around $7. But that could change, very quickly.”

So who could it be? We get a few other clues as we troll through the email …

“So not long ago, the Striker decided to pour the bulk of its exploration budget into the Great Wall strike – (It’s plans to spend $8 million in the first half of 2010, and another $8 million in the second half.)

“Geologists continued to swarm the strike zone’s 50 square kilometers of foothills.

“And they spared no expense. They created seismic geo-maps. They used computers to analyze chemicals in streambeds. They used special cameras to gather data – at the atomic level. Miners blasted 78,581 meters of trenches. They drilled 280 test holes.

“Meanwhile, outside firms were called in to verify all the findings.

“They included private companies like SRK Consultants China and BK Exploration Associates.”

OK, so that’s actually enough — the mine they must be referring to with the 78,581 meters of drilling and 280 holes is the Ying mine, which is the flagship property of and is roughly three-quarters owned by …

SilverCorp Metals (SVM in both NY and Toronto)

SilverCorp is not an American company, but they are US-listed (they’re Canadian, with the actual operating businesses all being Chinese subsidiaries) — but otherwise it matches the clues pretty much perfectly, including the $8 million in capital expenditures planned for the second half of this fiscal year, and the 300 km (186 mile) long silver zone. And they did use SRK Consultants China and BK Exploration in their resource estimate work.

SilverCorp is a new favorite of many, many newsletters — I saw a video with Martin Hutchinson where he alluded to his favorite Chinese silver miner and was clearly hinting around SilverCorp, and Matt Badiali touted the shares last Summer (I wrote about it at the time, and owned shares for a while last year as well — I don’t currently own SVM stock or have any other interest in the shares).

SilverCorp gets attention not only for being the biggest silver miner in China, with a tight relationship with the government and plenty of opportunity for additional exploration, but for being one of the lowest cost miners in the world. Thanks to significant output of both lead and zinc as “byproducts” at the Ying mine they’re able to mine silver at an effective price of something like negative $6 per ounce (meaning they make money even before they sell the silver).

Does their strike really run under the Great Wall of China? That I’m not so sure about — it’s certainly possible, the Ying mine is near the Luo River and from what I can tell from browsing a few maps the mining site is fairly close to sections of the wall. Close enough for me.

So what do you think? SilverCorp took a nice ride in the second half of last year as silver heated up, and it is a well-capitalized silver miner that is making money and paying a teensy dividend, it’s clearly not a junior miner that’s at huge risk of failing to discover silver, but it is, of course, in China and subject to Chinese regulatory and ownership risks (and in their favor they also enjoy lower Chinese operating costs, and lighter environmental regulations). If you’re willing to own a company that has to partner with the government to do well, and you think silver prices are likely to climb, SilverCorp is probably at least worth a look — plus, if the last few months are any indication, it seems likely that if we get a silver price spike the newsletters will probably tout the heck out of the shares, which tends to drive them up as well.

Got any opinion on SilverCorp? Feel free to share it with a comment below.

And I’ve written very little about Sound Profits before, though Steve McDonald, who helms that newsletter, has gotten some press here as a bond guy (his Bond Trader is in the top ten newsletters right now, though choosing investment-grade corporate bonds is of course different than recommending a small Chinese silver miner). If you’ve subscribed to Sound Profits, please click here to let us know what you thought.
Sumber:http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2010/01/silver-striker-massive-silver-mine-running-beneath-great-wall.html

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Wall Street’s Favorite Silver Stock

Luke Burgess, who I don’t believe I’ve written about in the past couple years, is pitching his Hard Money Millionaire advisory by saying he’s found the next Silver Standard Resources (SSRI).

He starts out by essentially saying that he’s following the big money — he noticed which institutions were heavily invested in SSRI, which saw massive returns, and saw some of those same institutions buying heavily into his new favorite silver stock.

“The same group of investors who made this company [SSRI] what it is today. . . is doing it again.

“Only this time, the stakes are higher — and the rewards are even bigger.

“No doubt you’ve heard of some of them. . .

“They’re Among the World’s Most Powerful Institutions. . .

“Barclays: The #1 institutional investment firm in the world, with $1.7 trillion under management.
“Goldman Sachs: The world’s 3rd-biggest money market manager, with $735 billion in assets.
“JPMorgan Chase: The second-largest U.S. bank, with holdings exceeding $1.17 trillion.
UBS: Europe’s leading wealth manager.”

And they dot the i’s and cross the t’s …

“Make no mistake: they’re a veritable “Investment Dream Team.”

“By making the same moves they do, investors like you are almost guaranteed to win.

“And that’s exactly what a group of savvy individuals did when they followed this group into Silver Standard Resources.

“Backed by the biggest names in finance, those who got in early walked away with gains topping 7,600%!

“So when I discovered these very same multi-national investment banks and wealth managers gobbling up shares of a similar silver mining stock. . .

“I knew something huge was about to happen.

“And it was high time I alerted my readers. . .

“This Investment Dream Team Is about To. . . Blow It Out of the Water a Second Time”

OK … so those massive institutions were all listed as shareholders of Silver Standard Resources at one time or another. We get it. We should note, to be fair, that if you look on the list of institutional owners or buyers of almost any stock of any size, you’ll see at least half of those names and many others that sound just as impressive.

Our focus today is on the next great silver stock — not Silver Standard Resources, which incidentally was one of the top performing teaser picks that I wrote about late last year (that was for an Oxford Club tease, they touted it around $8 and it’s now in the $20s), but the one that Luke Burgess now expects to blow the doors off the joint in the near future.

Burgess, like many other analysts and editors, starts with the assumption that silver will spike — not a bad assumption, since he’s already right to some degree (from the hints and other info in the ad I’m assuming that he wrote it when silver was around $13-14 an ounce, one of the risks of the time it takes some of these guys to get their ads released … it’s already over $17 an ounce and rapidly outpacing gold’s rise in recent months).

He tells us that he expects silver to spike to over $18 an ounce, which is not particularly aggressive at this point, and he pulls out the other numbers that we often see of $50 and $100 an ounce for silver.

“When the price of silver begins its parabolic spike, the small silver company I’m talking about could take off on an epic run. . . for two simple reasons:

“It’s backed by a litany of the world’s most powerful institutions.

“It’s projected to increase silver production by over 66% this year.

“Rest assured, once CNBC gets hold of the story, buying shares at this discount rate will be out of the question.

“And that’s why I want to extend you a special invitation.”

And the special invitation? It is, of course, to become one of the limited few who subscribe to his Hard Money Millionaire newsletter. In return, he’ll tell you all about his favorite silver company … and I’m sure he’ll send lots of other info your way, but if you just want to know about that silver company you’re in the right place.

Your friendly neighborhood Stock Gumshoe, of course, never limits the number of subscribers, and I can figure out who this company is from a few clues provided … and of course, it won’t cost you $495, the next few paragraphs will come your way for the limited-time discount price of zilch.

So how about those clues?

Here’s a big clump of them:

“My New Silver Play Could Return an Instant 33%. . . And Over 450% in the Next 18-24 Months Here’s why. . .

“In my years of research, investigation, and travel to corners of the world most will never even hear about — to see these operations for myself. . .

“I haven’t come across a better-founded outfit than this one.

“This small company combines a stable established base with some of the most exciting prospects in the business.

“It already has six silver-producing mines — all in geopolitically-safe mining-friendly countries.

“The company expects to continue ramping up production this year 66.7% to 20 million ounces — a $300,000,000 value at today’s prices.

“Now here’s the kicker. . .

“This company has a $1.1 billion market cap. And the 20 million ounces it will produce this year will be enough to jam double- and triple-digit gains into investors’ pockets.

“Not only that, but they’ve just increased their quarterly operating cash flow by over 650% to $16.8 million.

“And their latest projections indicate that by the end of 2009, the company expects operating cash flow to exceed $100 million. . .

“That’s a 762% increase over last year — and a 183-fold increase in overall production!

“No, I didn’t miss a decimal point. . . 183-fold. Or put more precisely —

“A Projected 18,339% Rise in Output Across all of their Properties over the Next Year!

“And if you think that’s amazing, consider this. . .

“The stock price has yet to react to this newly-released data.”

Well, I haven’t seen this ad running before today … but based on the prices he gave for the company, that 33% instant return has already happened, thanks to the spike in silver prices and a bit more awareness about this company’s ramp-up in production. The company? The mighty, mighty Thinkolator tells me that this is …

Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE)

CDE is one of the world’s major primary silver miners (primary meaning they focus on looking for and mining silver, they don’t produce it, as many major miners do, as a byproduct in gold, copper, zinc, etc. mines). They do have 6 mines across North and South America, all focused on silver (with some gold), plus a potential gold mine in Alaska (Kensington) that they hope to start development on next year.

The reason for the large increase in silver production is that they’re getting their first full year of production from “the world’s largest pure silver mine” (their words, I didn’t check), San Bartolome in Bolivia, and starting up production at a big mine in Mexico.

And yes, they did book $16.8 million in operating cash flow last quarter (reported in August), and they do expect 20 million ounces of production this year, which is a 66.7% increase over last year. I did not check the institutional holdings and changes to make sure that those matched up, but it seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible, that those exact matches would apply to another big silver miner.

Now the bad part: They don’t have a $1.1 billion market cap anymore … thanks to a $6 jump in the share price over the last few weeks of silver near-frenzy it’s now about $1.6 billion, with a share price over $21 and still climbing as I type. So if that’s what you were relying on for the quick 33% return, it’s already happened.

Of course, I don’t know if the stock price is reacting to their performance, as Luke expected to happen, or if it’s just bouncing them higher along with silver — all the silver names are up sharply in recent months, but it does look like investors are favoring these guys: Coeur d’Alene is outperforming most of them, it’s moving higher and faster than Pan American Silver (PAAS), Silver Wheaton (SLW), or Silver Standard Resources (SSRI).

Does that mean it will continue moving higher? Good question.

No, I don’t have the answer.

Sorry.

If we assume that the analysts are right, then CDE looks like a good bet compared to SSRI, PAAS and SLW based just on earnings, all those companies are expected to grow significantly in 2010 thanks to new production and rising silver prices, but Coeur d’Alene is trading at a forward PE of about 17 compared to 20+ for the other names, so perhaps there’s still a touch of “undervalued” in CDE if you think gold and silver will continue to perform well.

If you think silver and gold will go up, I’m fairly confident CDE will rise, too — they produce a significant amount of gold at a couple of their mines, and the Kensington gold mine is potentially very large if permitting goes through without a problem (it was tied up in court — going to the Supreme Court — until recently, but appears to be restarting now).

If you just want silver leverage without as much operational risk you might take a look at Silver Wheaton (they’re more akin to a royalty play on silver, with more predictable costs, though they’re also relying fairly heavily on a couple big mines), but if you want something a little bit cheaper, with perhaps more potential for a sharper move, CDE, SSRI and PAAS are probably all reasonable bets on a silver spike, and though I haven’t looked very closely at Coeur d’Alene before it does look like it may be worth some more attention.

And of course, CDE has already had a massive, massive run not just in recent weeks but over the past year — that already brought one analyst downgrade this week, citing the fact that they’re now more fairly valued after their price rise, but the share dip on that downgrade didn’t last long in the face of climbing silver prices.

I know there are a good number of silver bugs out there in Gumshoe Land, and I know that a lot of folks have talked about owning CDE both in comments here and in the forum, so if you’ve got a favorite for us, or some more insight on Coeur d’Alene or any of the other major silver names, I’m sure we’d all be delighted to hear about it — toss your fuel on the fire with a comment below.

Full disclosure: I own long term call options on both Silver Wheaton and Pan American Silver, and also own some silver bullion. I am not invested in anything else written about above and will not trade in any stock mentioned for at least three days.
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This Silver Stock Set to Soar in 2010

We haven’t taken a gander at any silver stocks in a while now, but the metal’s price is still holding up pretty well after a nice move of 50% or so from the summer lows, and the “poor man’s gold” is getting plenty of attention as an inflation hedge, an industrial metal, and a possible basis for some hypothetical commodity-backed currency in the future.

So this is the most recent silver stock teaser to jump through the Gumshoe hoops — it’s from the StreetAuthority folks, one of their “top ten” stocks for 2010 …

“Our Top Silver Stock for 2010 Is Cashing In On Soaring Demand

“This unique stock gained +122% last year and is set to soar AGAIN in 2010…”

And they have a bit more basic info at the top of the tease:

“Profit Catalysts:

“Spurred by inflation worries and increased industrial usage, silver demand is soaring (with silver prices following suit)

“New purchasing deals will give this company millions of ounces of silver at a rock-bottom cost of only $4 an ounce — about 75% cheaper than what everyone else pays for silver

“This company’s unique business model lets the firm reap all the benefits of appreciating silver but without the costs of digging and maintaining its own mines”

OK … so we’re taking it a bit easy on a chilly and quiet Tuesday here at Stock Gumshoe Headquarters — but we can start with a basic rule for your teaser deciphering convenience: when the newsletters tease you about a unique silver stock, it’s almost always Silver Wheaton (SLW)

And yes, today is no different. Silver Wheaton does match the clues they provide, it’s in the “silver streaming” business (and is almost alone in that business), has an operating margin of 42%, projected earnings per share growth of 12%, was recently priced at $16, and went up more than 122% last year. As of December 16th it was up almost exactly 122% from the January 2 close, so perhaps that’s close enough, though for the full year SLW stock was actually up something like 128%, unless I’m doing my math wrong. Still, pretty close.

When they go into some of the details, though, it’s clear that we needn’t have any qualms about the slight variations from the teaser numbers — there’s only one Silver Wheaton. Here’s what they say about it:

“As the world’s largest silver streaming company, the firm buys future silver production from gold miners for relatively fixed prices, often below $4 an ounce. These deals are a win-win for both parties: The mine owners get upfront cash for what they consider to be a byproduct, while our favorite silver company gets mounds of silver without having to shell out a penny for mine exploration or maintenance.

“Management recently locked up an agreement that will hand over 25% of whatever silver is dug up from Goldcorp’s Penasquito mine in Mexico. That deal alone is expected to yield 7.2 million ounces of silver annually for the next 22 years. The firm has 16 other agreements in place that will generate as much as 40 million ounces by 2013.

“That increased production could send sales soaring +135% within the next four years without any increase in silver prices. Keep in mind, the company has minimal future capital expenditures, so any incremental sales growth will be converted into earnings.

“In a recent quarter, sales of just 4.3 million ounces resulted in a record-shattering cash flow of $45 million, a +70% year-over-year increase. The combination of new deals and buoyant silver will send that total soaring over the next couple years.”

And yes, that’s all Silver Wheaton — in the most recent quarter it was actually 4.6 million ounces of silver equivalent sales, netting operating cash flow of $45.4 million, but close enough, and it was roughly a 70% increase year over year (though less than a 30% increase per share — Silver Wheaton issued a lot of new shares in 2009).

Silver Wheaton is one of a small class of companies who are essentially cash investors in mining projects at all stages and who receive some sort of royalty for their investment. Firms like Royal Gold, Franco-Nevada, and International Royalty are a little bit different in that they’re more strictly royalty investors, typically buying into a mining project for a set royalty based on the cash brought in from gold (or whatever else) sales.

One often used type of this investment relationship is the net smelter return royalty, for example, whereby the royalty owner gets a set percentage of the net proceeds from the “smelter” — which really means, in effect, that they get a specific percentage of the gross sales of whatever the mineral is from whatever the site is. That means they don’t have to worry about mining costs, or about anything else other than the gross output of the mine (the confusing use of the word “net” in net smelter return means the net output of the refining process, which is effectively the gross economic output of the mine).

But Silver Wheaton is a little different than the typical royalty investors — and they don’t call themselves a royalty firm, though the effect and the stock market valuation tend to be similar. They call themselves a silver “streaming” company … here’s how they describe that:

“The company has entered into seventeen agreements where, in exchange for an upfront payment, it has the right to purchase all or a portion of the silver production, at a low fixed cost, from high-quality mines located in politically stable regions. Forecast 2009 production is 16 million ounces of silver and 17,000 ounces of gold, for total production of 17 million silver equivalent ounces. By 2013, annual production is anticipated to more than double to approximately 39 million ounces of silver and 20,000 ounces of gold, for total production of approximately 40 million silver equivalent ounces. No ongoing capital expenditures are required to generate this growth and Silver Wheaton does not sell forward its silver sales.”

So instead of investing in a mine in exchange for a royalty payment, Silver Wheaton essentially buys a call option on all (or part) of a mine’s silver output — sometimes that silver is available because the miner is focused on gold and is willing to take the chance of offloading the silver in exchange for an upfront payment, or because the miner wants to hedge against possible silver price collapse, or just because they need the money and SLW is ready to offer it. This means that SLW has a slightly different calculation to make — they have to make sure that the mine will produce enough silver to make it worthwhile, and that silver stays above their break-even price (the price they offer to the miner, currently averaged at about $4 an ounce, plus the pro-rated share of whatever they paid up front for the silver rights). So they tend to focus on large projects run by big miners, which should offer some stability.

Silver Wheaton is, of course, far from undiscovered — it’s a big company, with a market cap of almost $6 billion, and it is almost unique, so it occupies its own little niche that pretty much all commodity and precious metals investors know about. It’s also well-covered in the investing press, particularly by the newsletters, and it has long been a favorite of a few of the authors at the Motley Fool (here’s one bullish article). I also own some call options on Silver Wheaton and I’ve mentioned it many times in this space, though I don’t own the shares right now.

Silver Wheaton is likely to become the largest effective silver miner in the world, as soon as that big Penasquito production comes online, and they do it without getting their hands dirty, and with a fair degree of diversification — this might do them some good in the competition against other silver investments, particularly if South American political developments end up making investors nervous about some of the other very big silver producers like Pan American Silver (Peru exposure) or Apex or Couer d’Alene (Bolivia).

That said, this is basically a financial company, so figuring out the value relies on using the same inputs you would use if you were the one buying those silver contracts — how much silver are they going to be buying (ie, will production match the expectations at the mines where they’re “streaming” the silver), how much of a profit margin will they get above that fixed buy price (meaning, what will the spot price of silver be at the time — they don’t hedge), will they continue to make effective investments with their silver income (they’re rolling all that money into new silver streaming deals, they don’t pay a dividend).

So you have to make your own assumptions about silver prices and investor sentiment to decide how much the stock should be worth — this is neither an earnings nor a dividend play at the moment, though they are profitable and relatively inexpensive (their forward PE is about 20, lower than the other large royalty-type companies and than some of the big silver miners, but higher than Pan American Silver or Coeur d’Alene). Silver Wheaton doesn’t carry any debt to speak of, but that’s typical of the big names in this space.

Investors seem to be buying Silver Wheaton largely because they think it will be a good way to get a bit of leverage on higher silver prices with SLW’s significantly increasing silver “output” over the next several years (largely from expected Penasquito production), and without the risks inherent in relying on just one or two mines in politically unstable areas or worrying about spiking oil costs cutting into margins (they pay a fixed price for the silver regardless of mining costs). More aggressive silver investors may well find that SilverCorp Metals (SVM, big low-cost Chinese miner), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Silver Standard Resources (SSRI), or Coeur d’Alene (CDE) and the other silver-focused miners have more home run potential in a silver bull run, or that one of the scores of really junior miners could boom with a new discovery, but when I’m worried about my blood pressure SLW is usually the silver stock I look to first.

I know we’ve got a lot of silver “bugs” out there in Gumshoedom — is Silver Wheaton still among your favorites, or do you prefer something else in the sector? Let us know with a comment below. And the Street Authority gang were kind enough to tease their other top ten investments for the year in a recent ad, too, so if you’re interested in finding out about the other nine just let me know and I’ll try to follow up (I just glanced quickly at the clues, can’t be sure yet but the list probably includes BHP Billiton, Hospira, National CineMedia, and a few ETFs).

Full disclosure: As I noted above, I do own call options on SLW (I also own some silver bullion and coins), but I don’t currently own any other silver miners or other stocks mentioned in this article, though I have invested in several of them in the past. I own shares of Altius Minerals, which is a significant owner of International Royalty and is in agreement to sell their ROY shares to Royal Gold. I will not trade in any name mentioned here for at least three days.
Sumber:http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2010/01/this-silver-stock-set-to-soar-in-2010.html

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Why It’s Time to Invest in Silver: This Precious Metal’s Rally is Just Getting Started

Why It’s Time to Invest in Silver: This Precious Metal’s Rally is Just Getting Started

by David Fessler, Energy and Infrastructure Expert
Wednesday, December 2, 2009: Issue #1149

You don’t have to look too far these days without hearing someone talk about how high gold prices could go. The topic is fiercely debated in the mainstream financial media at the moment – especially for investors who are late to the party.

But are they really late, or is the “party” just getting started? Yes, investors who bought the gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), or gold miners like Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM), or Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) a year ago have seen their investments soar by 54%, 83% and 184% respectively.

But gold continues to soar. And large open market purchases from central banks in China, India and Russia are only helping the price surge more. (Just one year ago, some of these same central banks were actually selling gold in an attempt to fill an annual 10,000-ton supply gap.)

When gold rallies, it often drags other precious metals along for the ride. Chief among them is silver. But according to one closely watched indicator, silver has lagged a bit. And that opens the door to an opportunity that well-respected commodities experts, like Jim Rogers, say could be at hand…

Silver: The “Other” Gold

Gold and silver are like blood brothers – generally in sync with each other and tending to move in the same direction.

The relationship is such that there’s even an indicator that measures it – the gold/silver ratio. Many investors use the ratio to spot extremes in the pricing of either precious metal, and to spot trends, whether up or down.

With gold at $1,191 and silver at $18.63, the ratio currently sits at 64:1 – well above its one-year low from September. But in 2008, the ratio hit 84:1 before retreating.

With individual investors and central banks still buying gold, its meteoric rise shows few signs of stopping… at least for now. As a result, the gold/silver ratio suggests that silver has some catching up to do.

But silver has one advantage that gold doesn’t…

The Supply-Demand Equation Bodes Well for Rising Silver Prices

Unlike gold, silver is used in more commercial and industrial applications. The list is extensive – electrical contacts, mirrors, jewelry, currency coins, photographic films and as a catalyst in many chemical reactions.

However, silver production is dropping. Much of it comes as a by-product of other mining and refining, primarily lead and zinc. But due to plummeting prices created by over-supply, many lead and zinc mines were mothballed back in 2008.

As a result, silver production stalled with lead and zinc – and inventories are now at historic lows.

That’s the supply side of the equation. But what about industrial demand?

In short, it continues to rise. So with silver supplies lagging, silver prices are likely to head in one direction: up.

There’s another big difference between gold and silver…

Don’t Ignore Silver… Take the Rogers Route

Most fund managers won’t touch silver with a 10-foot pole. The reason? At around $9 billion, the size and liquidity of the silver market is roughly 20 times smaller than the gold market.

However, it might be a mistake to ignore silver. With supplies continuing to fall and demand continuing to rise, the metal could very well make a very dramatic move to the upside over the next three to six months – even if gold prices fall.

Then there’s Jim Rogers…

As recently as October, Rogers, founder of the Quantum Fund, suggested that the U.S. dollar will continue its decline and that hard assets like gold, silver and agricultural products represented good value in the upcoming inflationary environment.

So if you want to gain some exposure to the silver market, you could consider a few shares of the ETFS Silver Trust (NYSE: SIVR), or silver miner Silver Wheaton (NYSE: SLW).

A deteriorating U.S. dollar suggests that while gold’s meteoric rise still has room to run, silver’s run is yet to get started.

Good investing,

Dave Fessler

An Investment U… Extra: Think gold prices are high in the United States? Take a look at Vietnam, where the price recently hit $1,300 per ounce. The reason? Supply and demand.

Two years ago, investors in Vietnam looked to gold as a hedge against inflation, just like everyone else. And for good reason, too: In 2008, inflation in the Southeast Asian country was already over 20%.

As a result, nervous Vietnamese investors began buying gold. Lots of gold. The government took notice and, concerned that too much of its citizens’ cash was flowing into the metal, shut down gold imports.

And as gold’s upward surge has intensified over the past few months, Vietnam slapped a $60 per ounce premium on the yellow metal.

But when gold soared above $1,120 an ounce two weeks ago, the price topped $1,300 an ounce in Vietnam, as investors scrambled for as much of it as they could get. That prompted the Vietnamese government to backtrack, dropping import controls and allowing prices to equalize with those of the rest of the world.

If you’re looking for a smarter, simpler way to buy either gold or silver (in addition to the two investments that Dave mentioned above), look no further than the EverBank Metals Select Account. As the dollar languishes and inflation lurks around the corner, an account offers important, cost-effective diversification into these traditional safe havens.
Sumber:http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/December/why-its-time-to-invest-in-silver.html

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Buy Gold or Silver?

Buy Gold or Silver?

by Sean Brodrick on November 17, 2009

Sorry about the late post, but I’m still dragging butt after flying all day Sunday into Monday morning, then working all day Monday.

Anyway, gold and silver are both having good days considering that the U.S. dollar is higher. But one question I often get is which to buy NOW – gold or silver.

Let’s look at a chart. Wordpress won’t let me post a chart today — another problem that has delayed things — but here’s a link to a chart on Stockcharts.com …

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$SILVER&p=M&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02622752128&a=183692670

So, you can see the gold-silver ratio is coming down. This has been the trend, and until the trend changes, silver will probably appreciate (percentage-wise) faster than gold.

On the other hand, I don’t see anything wrong with owning gold, either. So, silver for a quick trade, both gold and silver for the longer-term.

Sumber:http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/buy-gold-or-silver/

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5 Tips for Gold and Silver Buyers

Sumber:http://blogs.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/red-hot-energy-and-gold/ultimate-suburban-survivalist-%E2%80%93-5-tips-for-gold-and-silver-buyers/
An excerpt from my book, The Ultimate Suburban Survivalist …

Precious metals are usually sold by the troy ounce, which weighs more than the typical ounce we use in everyday life. But just to add further confusion, there are 12 (not 16) troy ounces in a troy pound.

Bullion Bars and Coins

Bullion coins—American Eagles, Buffaloes, Canadian Maple Leafs, etc.—allow you to own investment grade gold (between 0.90 and 0.9999 fineness) in a quantity that will be recognized at any gold dealer in the Western world.

Most bullion coins are minted in 1/10-ounce, ¼-ounce, ½-ounce and 1-ounce form (some can be larger). However, one-ounce gold bullion coins such as Eagles or Krugerrands are by far the most popular for small investors.

However, I’d avoid obscure gold coins, sometimes given as commemorative pieces or medallions. You might get a junk price for something a dealer can’t easily sell.

Be careful buying gold or silver bars – they’re easier to counterfeit than a coin. Coins have much, much wider recognition.

Semi-Numismatic and Numismatic Gold Coins

Numismatic or older and rare coins are bought not solely for their precious metal content but also for their rarity and their historical, aesthetic appeal. They are leveraged to the gold price, which means that the price of these coins can increase faster than the gold price in a bull market (due to their historical and aesthetic value and to their rarity) and can decrease by more when gold is in a bear market.

Many investors opt for high-quality pre-1933 high-grade gold coins.

These can be great investments. On the other hand, if you’re one of the people worried about a money panic and a potential breakdown in society, you have to wonder how well numismatic value will hold in such a situation.

Physical Alternatives to Coins and Bars

Most people buy gold bars or coins. But gold buyers and sellers also traffic in gold dust, nuggets, wire, and even gold chips used by dentists to fill teeth. But none of these are as fungible as coins or bars and coins are the most fungible of all. The more a gold piece is a fabricated product of known weight and purity, the better off you usually are. Gold dust in particular can be diluted or even counterfeited.

Gold Investing—Keep it Simple

Your investment advisor may have other ideas, but I recommend:

Investment #1—Buy gold. And I mean physical gold, the kind you put in a safe. You don’t buy physical gold to get rich; you buy it to preserve wealth. If Treasuries implode, gold will make a mighty fine insurance policy. Also, you might want to pick up gold in forms that you can easily barter if paper money becomes worthless—simple gold rings, for example. Wedding bands are good for this. I know of a guy who has hundreds of wedding bands stored on clothes hangers in his closet.

The worst time to buy gold is when it’s going higher. Nothing travels in a straight line, so wait for a pullback and pick up simple gold coins or gold bars.

Investment #2—Silver. Again, I mean physical silver. If our economy, financial system, and paper money go south, you’ll want gold and silver. Flashing around too much gold could make you a target. Silver doesn’t attract as much attention and it’s still a precious metal. In fact, silver is undervalued compared to gold by some metrics.

Five Tips for Gold Bullion Buyers

Here is a collection of five tips from expert sources.

1. Call at least three dealers for a price. The difference between a good price and an almost good price can be the difference between getting 100 ounces of gold and 90 ounces of gold.

2. Make sure you include shipping costs in your calculation of the price of the coin—shipping costs vary wildly from dealer to dealer.

3. You need to be explicit on what you are locking in, including price, merchandise, and terms of payment. If there seems to be any waffling on the part of the dealer, this is a warning sign to steer clear.

4. Look for a dealer who has been in business for a number of years. Ideally, if you go to someone who was in business in the 1970-to-1980 boom, they’ve seen enough ups and downs in the market to handle the challenges of price fluctuations and coin availability.

5. Get to know a local dealer. The advantage is he can call you when he gets new inventory and there will be no shipping involved.

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When You Should Borrow Money To Invest-by Azizi Ali

By Azizi Ali

One of the most common question I get is this: is it a good idea to borrow money to invest in investment 'x' (the 'x' can be unit trusts, ASB, properties, business, Bank Rakyat shares, etc., etc.)?

Let me answer the question in real world terms.

Firstly, that is how folks build serious money – by using other people’s money. This strategy occurs regularly in business. Entrepreneurs borrow money from the bank to finance their expansion. They conquer the world, repay the loan and make tons of money. And that is always a good thing.

Now this concept of borrowing money to make more money works a treat for businesses as the margins are wide. The interest charged for the loan is often below 10 percent, but the business reaps 30, 50 or even 100 percent return on their investment.

Further, because of the wide margins, even when the returns drop, the businesses still make loads of money.

Now you can see why this concept is made-to-order for businesses.

However, the same does not apply when it comes to investments such as shares or unit trusts. Often time, the margin or spread between the interest and return is slim – less than 3 percent most of the time. For example, the interest charged is 9 percent but the return is only 11 percent.

Now, if the situation remains like that - interest 9 percent and return 11 percent - things are still hunky dory. You would do well taking the loan and making the investment. However, what usually happens is that the return starts to drop off. From 11 percent, they drop to 10 percent and then to 8 percent.(By the way, this is what happened to the once-fabulous ASB.)

The way things are going, the return could very well drop below the interest charged! This is not an unusual thing. When that happens, instead of making money, the investor is now forking out money. And that, needless to say, is not a very nice thing to happen. Not exactly fairy tales stuff. (By the way again, this is what usually happens when folks borrow money to invest in stocks.)

Now after painting the real world scenario, let me answer the question. Yes, you should borrow money to invest – if the spread is wide (more than 5 percent) and you are pretty sure that the situation will remain status quo for the loan period. For example, if the interest is 9 percent, the return should be at least 14 percent. Otherwise, let others be the test-pilot. You watch by the sidelines.

Now, I know a lot of people will jump and shake their heads. They will quote how their father, grandfather, uncle, auntie or neighbour made tons of money by borrowing money to invest even when the spread is ultra-thin. Of course it can happen. People also strike the lottery but has it happened to you?

If the spread is thin, you are taking an unnecessary risk. While you can make a little bit of money, but the chances of you losing a lot of money is significantly higher. Once the return starts to drop and/or the interest starts to rise, you lose both money and sleep and that is no way to make a fortune.

In case anyone thinks that this is a theory from the ivory tower, I personally will not borrow to invest if the spread is less than 5 percent. In fact, I will not borrow to invest in unit trusts or shares - period. I only borrow money to expand my business and for property investment.

PS. The questions have been coming in fast and furious lately. FYI, I get an average of 30 e-mails a day from folks who want the answer for something, some problem or some investment. While I am always happy to help, I am unable to give personal answers anymore. Otherwise, all I’ll be doing all day is replying e-mails!

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Info:Dinar dan Dirham

INFO:
Dinar syiling emas 22 K, berat 4.25 gm.
Dirham syiling perak 999, berat 2.975 gm.
Saidina Umar telah menggariskan satu standard berat dinar dan dirham iaitu 7 dinar mestilah bersamaan berat dgn 10 dirham.

Komen saya:
1 dirham=2.975gm..so katakanlah 1gm=rm2...so 1 dirham=rm5.95....(tapi harga selepas minting-rm15)..so mahal jugak proses utnuk minting..lebih baik beli jongkong silver...harga 1kg silver=+- rm2000

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Seigniorage, Cukai inflasi yang anda perlu fahami

Sumber:http://hasbullah.pit.my/
Apa itu Seigniorage?

Mungkin ramai yang tidak faham, atau belum faham.

Walaupun Seigniorage bukan membawa maksud 'Cukai Inflasi' secara langsung, akan tetapi dalam konteks sistem kewangan masa kini, boleh diibaratkan sebagai satu bentuk cukai.

Apabila Ali mendepositkan 100 gram emas di dalam bank, dan dia boleh menebus emasnya itu pada kuantiti emas yang sama, maka tidak berlaku seigniorage.


Lupakan contoh di atas kerana di bank , anda hanya boleh mendepositkan kertas.

Dalam sistem kewangan masa kini yang dikawal oleh bank negara, kita tidak boleh menebus setiap ringgit yang kita ada, dengan emas. Kenapa ya? Orang BNM lah yang boleh jawap.

Kertas ringgit dalam kitaran dan kertas yang deposit bertambah dari masa ke semasa.

Pada tahun 1982, menurut laporan Bank Negara Malaysia, kertas ringgit dalam kitaran dan dideposit, jumlahnya tidak sampai RM 13 billion. Hari ini ianya sudah melebihi 200 bilion.

Peningkatan 16 kali ganda.

Mana datangnya duit itu?

Nilai kertas yang mewakilkan emas akan turun kalau kertas itu banyak.

Rizab emas BNM telah merosot daripada 72 tan kepada 36 tan, akan tetapi kertas yang mewakilinya bertambah.

Inflasi boleh ditakrif menggunakan 2 cara.
1 cara, ialah kira ikut harga barang, itu yang digembar gemburkan supaya ianya kelihatan sedikit.

Satu cara lagi, ialah mengira berapa kadar kertas itu dikembangkan.
Kertas Ringgit dikembangkan berapa peratus tahun ini
Kertas pound dikembangkan berapa peratus tahun ini.

Dalam kaedah ke dua, peratusannya lebih tinggi daripada kaedah pertama.

Kaedah pertama, kira ikut harga barang, kadar inflasinya boleh disembunyikan dengan mengawal harga yang dikira itu. Bukan sahaja dikawal, malah subsidi diberikan untuk merendahkannya supaya inflasi pengembangan bekalan wang disembunyikan.

Inflasi pengembangan bekalan wang itu tetap ada, walaupun ianya disembunyikan.
Lambat laun ianya tidak boleh disembunyikan lagi, lihat sahaja harga gula, dan minyak.

Kembali kepada persoalan cukai inflasi seigniorage.

Daripada penerangan di atas, menunjukkan walaupun pengembangan wang, tidak mengakibatkan kesan inflasi serta merta.

Apabila Najib mengumumkan belanjawan tambahan 60 billion daripada angin. 60 bilion dicipta untuk digunakan.
Namun kesan inflasi itu bukan berlaku serta merta pada hari ianya dibentangkan.

Bila kesannya akan bertindakbalas? belum lagi.

60 billion itu boleh digunakan oleh kerajaan secara hutang.
Hutang kepada siapa 60 bilion itu?
Akan diterangkan selepas ini.

Daripada belanjawan 2010, telah menunjukkan bahawa hutang kerajaan persekutuan adalah RM362.5 bilion.

Hutang Kerajaan Persekutuan dijangka bertambah 18.3 peratus kepada RM362.5 bilion pada akhir 2009 (akhir 2008: 14.9 peratus: RM306.4 bilion) terutamanya disebabkan peningkatan pinjaman dalam negeri untuk memenuhi keperluan pembiayaan.



Hutang kepada siapa hutang itu?




Sejak kecil kita diajar bahawa, kalau berhutang, maka perlu dibayar, akan tetapi dalam sistem ekonomi sebegini, ianya adalah hutang yang tidak dibayar.




Ianya hanya mengakibatkan penurunan nilai kepada kertas ringgit pada masa akan datang, Akan tetapi duit itu telah digunakan dahulu pada nilaian semasa.




Hampir setiap tahun belanjawan defisit, maka defisit itu akan membentuk jumlah hutang persekutuan di atas.




Kerajaan hari ini membelanjakan wang lebih daripada sepatutnya, tak perlu dibayar kerana ianya automatik akan merendahkan nilai ringgit yang digunakan semua orang pada masa akan datang.


Ahmad menyimpan RM 2500 hari ini untuk membeli lembu untuk kahwinkan anaknya. Akan tetapi disebabkan anaknya itu tidak kacak seperti Ali Rustam, maka dia berkahwin 10 tahun daripada sekarang. Pada ketika itu harga lembu pula RM 3500. Ali perlu membayar tambahan RM 1000 . RM 1000 tambahan yang dibayar itu adalah cukai inflasi. Dimana ianya telah diambil awal-awal oleh kerajaan.


Seandainya Ahmad, menyimpan nilai RM 2500 dlam bentuk emas untuk membeli lembu, maka apabila dia hendak membeli lembu 10 tahun daripada sekarang, maka emas itu cukup untuk membeli lembu. Ahmad terlepas daripada membayar cukai inflasi.

Itulah fungsi emas yang sebenar, iaitu menyimpan nilai, dan juga melindungi daripada Seigniorage cukai inflasi.


Maka hasil titik peluh bekerja perlu disimpan dalam bentuk emas supaya tidak dicukai dalam bentuk seigniorage oleh kerajaan

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Muamalah Syariah dengan dinar dan dirham

Sumber:http://www.dirham2dinar.com/

Muamalah Syariah dengan dinar dan dirham
SIRI 1 : MENGEMBALIKAN MUAMALAH SYARIAH DENGAN PENGGUNAAN WANG DINAR EMAS DAN DIRHAM PERAK
( Penulis : Puan Hajjah Nik Mahani binti Mohamad FCCA (UK); Ahli Lembaga Pengarah Kelantan Golden Trade (M) Sdn Bhd )

Perpatah Melayu ada satu bidalan ‘alah bisa tinggal biasa’. Bidalan ini sangat tepat apabila kita mula menyedari betapa keadaan kita umat Nabi Muhammad SAW diabad ini telah menjadikan suatu kebiasaan menggunakan wang-wang kertas sebagai alat pertukaran tanpa terdetik dihati sanubari akan kejanggalan amalan kita selama ini! Betapa matahati serta akal kita tidak nampak dan sedar akan kepincangan amalan kita selama ini menggunakan sekeping kertas yang kita semua secara spontan menerima sebagai sesuatu yang ada nilai berdasarkan coretan angka dan chop serta gambar tertera diatasnya Yang Dipertuan Agung dan disebelahnya lambang serta gambar Bank Negara Malaysia! Tidak pernah ada rasa terbuku dihati sanubari untuk menyoal mengapa dan kenapa kita menukarkan barangan kita yang ada nilai sebenar dengan sekeping kertas yang tiada nilai sebenar .Apa dia maksud Ringgit sebenar nya ? Paling baik; bolehlah kita tafsirkan sebagai ianya merupakan catitan hutang yang dijamin oleh Bank Negara kita! Pun demikian sekiranya anda beranikan diri pergi menuntut hutang tersebut dibayar dengan sesuatu yang nilai setimpal dengan nilai hutang tersebut dari Bank Negara; saya percaya mereka sendiri pun akan terpinga-pinga untuk menunaikan hajat anda ! Nak dibayar hutang tersebut dengan apa ? emas? Ringgit tidak lagi ada sandaran dengan emas atau perak sejak tahun 1971! Bukan kah ini bererti Ringgit sebenarnya bukan catitan hutang yang dijamin oleh kerajaan atau Bank Negara atau oleh sesiapa pun!! Menyedari hakikat ini kita akan membuat suatu konklusi bahawa adalah sangat tidak adil dan melanggar kebebasan kemaanusian apabila rakyat Malaysia dipaksa menerima penggunaan Ringgit sebagai ‘legal tender’ dalam semua urusan yang melibatkan penggunaan Ringgit!
Hakikat sebenarnya ialah apabila kerajaan mengenakan perundangan legal tender terhadap rakyat sebagai alat pertukaran adalah suatu paksaan yang menyekat kebebasan rakyat daripada kebebasan dan keredhaan pihak yang ditawarkan Ringgit Malaysia menerimanya. Mereka tiada pilihan terpaksa menerima Ringgit. Perundangan legal tender memaksa sipenjual menerima pembayaran dengan Ringgit apabila sipembeli menawarkanya ! Jika sipenjual tidak mahu menerima Ringgit; perundangan legal tender berkuatkuasa! Sipenjual boleh diheret ke mahkamah dengan penolakan penerimaan pembayaran dengan Ringgit! Hakikatnya dengan memaksa perundangan legal tender keatas sipenjual; pihak kerajaan memaksa sipenjual yang TIDAK ADA PILIHAN melainkan MESTI MENERIMA Ringgit untuk perniagaan dan perdagangan yang mereka lakukan. Asas inilah yang bertentangan dengan Syariah Islam! Dalam hokum-hukum Muamalat Syariah Islam dalam perkara transaksi asas perdagangan dan perniagaan mahupun dalam apa jua pertukaran yang melibatkan alat-alat pertukaran; kedua-dua belah pihak – Sipenjual dan Sipembeli atau sipemberi dan Sipenerima BEBAS menentukan samaada setuju atau sebaliknya – menggunakan Ringgit atau sebarang jenis pertukaran yang kedua belah pihak setuju menerimanya!
Pun begitu, sangat perlu diambil perhatian; perundangan ‘legal tender’ ini tidak dapat menghalang kebebasan sipenjual daripada menerima selain Ringgit apabila ditawarkan oleh Sipembeli! Ini bererti, jika sipembeli ingin membeli setin susu dengan menawarkan jam tangan beliau; tiada suatu perundangan termasuk perundangan ‘legal tender’ yang dapat menghalang sipenjual daripada menerima jam tangan tersebut sebagai alat pertukaran! Sekali gus, jika sipenjual ditawarkan dengan koin-koin dinar atau dirham; perundangan ‘legal tender’ tidak dapat menghalangnya! Jika pihak Bank Negara Malaysia atau mana-mana pihak cuba menghalang sipenjual daripada menerima koin-koin dinar dan dirham yang ditawarkan oleh sipembeli ; tindakan ini adalah sesuatu yang dianggap strange atau pelik kerana tiada mana-mana Negara didunia hari ini mengimplimentasikan suatu perundangan yang memaksa rakyat mereka MESTI HANYA MENERIMA PEMBAYARAN DENGAN WANG-WANG NASIONAL NEGARA MASING-MASING SAHAJA! Kerana perundangan sebegini menyekat kebebasan asas dalam kehidupan sesaorang insan dimuka bumi ini dan semestinya dalam dunia hari ini yang mengamalkan kebebasan bersuara dll adalah suatu tindakan yang tidak adil dan diluar kemanusian asas! Ini bermakna PEMBELILAH YANG MESTI MEMBUAT TAWARAN DENGAN WANG DINAR DAN DIRHAM SUPAYA SIPENJUAL DAPAT TERLEPAS DARI JERAT ‘LEGAL TENDER’! Inilah juga ruang yang memungkinkan kita rakyat Negara kita khasnya untuk kita kembali menawarkan koin-koin dinar dan dirham dalam setiap transaksi urusan jual/beli Insya Allah! Maksudnya jika sipembeli menghulurkan selain Ringgit; sipenjual BOLEH dan BEBAS menerimanya tanpa melanggar perundangan legal tender!
Kebebasan umat Islam sebagaimana yang digariskan dalam perundangan Muamalah Syariah dalam transaksi perdagangan dan perniagaan adalah pada suatu istilah ‘aantarodhin minkum’ atau maksudnya ‘kedua belah pihak dalam transaksi tersebut mestilah redha meredhai’! Sipenjual redha menjual barangan nya dan redha serta bebas memilih sebarang alat pertukaran yang ditawarkan dan sipembeli redha menerima barangan yang ditawarkan serta bebas menawarkan alat pertukaran asalkan sahaja sipenjual setuju menerimanya!. Jika inilah asas antara sipenjual dan sipembeli dalam sesuatu perdagangan dan peniagaan, maka inilah hokum Syariah Muamalah Islam yang selama ini kita abaikan! Aneh! Tetapi impaknya amat ketara sekali kerana dengan adanya amalan legal tender yang dikenakan atas rakyat; kebebasan sipenjual yang terpaksa menerima Ringgit apabila ditawarkan adalah suatu paksaan yang melanggar hak asasi kemanusian dalam urusan perdagangan dan perniagaan sebenarnya.
Tahukah anda bahawa perkara kebebasan memilih alat penukaran ini – bererti sipenjual dan sipembeli atau sesiapa pun atas apa jua hajat kebutuhan menggunakan wang MESTILAH DIBERIKAN KEBEBASAN MEMILIH! Impak penyataan Syariah ini amat besar implikasinya dalam kehidupan ini! ‘AANTARODHIN MIN KUM’ bererti juga kerajaan Kelantan sebagai contoh TIDAK BOLEH MEMAKSA RAKYATNYA MEMILIH UNTUK HANYA MENGGUNAKAN DINAR DAN DIRHAM SAHAJA DALAM APA JUA URUSAN MEREKA!! Ini maksudnya! Jadi membawa kembali penggunaan wang-wang Syariah sepertimana yang dirancang oleh Kerajaan Kelantan adalah SUATU PILIHAN PENGGUNA atau RAKYAT dan HANYA MEREKA yang BOLEH MEMBUAT PILIHAN SAMAADA MAHU ATAU TIDAK MENGGUNAKANNYA….DALAM MUAMALAH ISLAM TIADA PAKSAAN ! Hatta rakyat bebas samaada mahu memilih Ringgit atau koin-koin dinar dan dirham dalam apa jua keadaan. Sekiranya Kerajaan Negeri Kelantan contohnya MEMAKSA RAKYATNYA MENERIMA KOIN-KOIN DINAR DAN DIRHAM INI ADALAH SUATU KESALAHAN DAN MELANGGAR HUKUM MUAMALAH SYARIAH ITU SENDIRI! Maka percayalah KERAJAAN KELANTAN TIDAK AKAN MEMAKSA RAKYATNYA dan TIADA CADANGAN UNTUK MEMBUAT PERUNDANGAN LEGAL TENDER KEATAS RAKYATNYA sepertimana yang gembar gempurkan oleh sesetengah pihak semasa pelancaran Dinar Kelantan pada hari yang bersejarah 20hb September 2006 dahulu! Penggunakan koin-koin dinar dan dirham dan edarannya sebagai wang yang sah didalam Syarak terletak dalam tangan rakyat Negeri Kelantan khasnya dan semua warga Malaysia amnya terutamanya kaum Muslimin dan Muslimat di Negara kita Malaysia tercinta ini sahaja! Insya Allah!
Dengan suatu ketentuan kaedah Syarak dalam Muamalah ‘Aan tarodhin min kom’ sahaja sudah Nampak betapa kesempunaan agama Islam ini kerana implkasi –redha meredhai antara kedua belah pihak ini bermakna pada penggertian yang lebih luas; adalah suatu FREEDOM atau kebebasan dari mana-mana pihak didalam negeri; Negara mahupun diperingkat antarabangsa ! Islam memahatkan bahawa PERKARA MATAWANG INI TERSANGAT PERLU DIBEBASKAN DAN BUKAN DIKONGKONG DAN PERLU DIKAWALSELIA OLEH SESIAPA PUN! Dalam konteks monetary hari ini; perkara inilah yang menjadi akal tunjang nya! Tahukah anda masyarakat dunia dan pihak yang ada kuasa hari sedang merancang untuk menyatupadukan semua maanusia supaya tunduk kepada pemilihan SATU MATAWANG sahaja ? Ia akan bermula dengan rancangan regional currencies kemudian akan seterusnya beraleh kepada satu matawang dunia kononnya demi mencapai kesejagatan ummah! Inilah rhetorika yang mereka dan semua pemimpin dunai hari ini termasuk Negara kita dalam menanggani kononnya krisis ekonomi dunia hari ini! Percayalah bagi kita umat Nabi Muhammad SAW; kita harus berpegang pada tali Allah SWT dan percaya HANYA Allah SWT dapat memandu kita mencapai kesejahteraan dunia dan akhirat dengan mengembalikan muamalah Syariah kita sepertimana amalan muslimin dan muslimat di sebuah negeri yang mendapat cahaya hidayah Allah SWT – AMALAN HIDUP PENDUDUK DI MADINATUL MUNAWWARAH sahaja yang mampu membawa penyelesaikan masaalah kita! Hanya Allah SWT sahaja yang kita sembah dan kepadaNYA sahaja kita mendaulatkan! ALLAH HU AKBAR!Bersambung…

Komen Keatas Artikel UZAR
Segala puji bagi Allah dan Salawat dan salam keatas junjungan besar Nabi Muhammad s.aw dan para sahabat r.anhum ajmain.
Saya ingin mengulas artikel UZAR dari laman web beliau yang bertajuk :
Punca Gawat & Matawang Emas Akan Gagal Jika …………
Ada dua pekara yang nampak difokuskan UZAR
1) Fungsi Matawang
2) Permainan FOREX pemusnah sistem matawang

Antara yg. disebut oleh UZAR dalam artikel beliau :

KEMBALIKAN FUNGSI ASAL MATAWANG
Imam Abu Hamid Al-Ghazali sejak 900 tahun dahulu telah menegaskan fungsi asal dan asas bagi matawang menurut perspektif Islam. Beliau berkata
"Penciptaaan dirham dan dinar ( matawang emas dan perak) adalah benar-benar satu rahmat dari Allah ta'ala, kedua-duanya pada hakikatnya tiada nilai tersendiri yang boleh dimanfaatkan oleh manusia ( seperti untuk makan dan minum), tetapi akhirnya semua manusia memerlukannya disebabkan semua manusia memerlukan nilai suatu komoditi (barang) untuk ditukarkan bagi mendapatkan keperluan asasi makanan dan pakaiannya. Atas sebab itu, transaksi yang melibatkan pertukaran barangan antara satu sama lain tidak dapat dielakkan, Namun masalahnya, bagaimana untuk diukur nilai sesebuah barang dan ditetapkan harganya? Justeru keperluan itu, semua barangan keperluan ini memerlukan satu barang perantaraan yang boleh menjadi ukur rujuk bagi nilai. Maka itulah gunanya dinar dan dirham ini (wang emas dan perak), kedua-dua logam berharga itu akan menjadi ukuran nilai sesuatu barangan lain kerana KEDUANYA TIDAK MENJADI OBJEKTIF jual beli, ia hanya menjadi perantaraan, jika kedua menjadi OBJEKTIF seluruh system ekwangan akan ROSAK DAN TERGANGGU. Kerana itulah Allah menciptankannya, melalui perantaraannya, pertukaran barangn kepelruan yang menjadi sasaran dan oibjektif jual beli akan terjamin keadilannya."
Dari penerangan Imam Al-Ghazzali ini, jelas pendirian ekonomi Islam berkenaan matawang tidak kira ia dari jenis emas, perak atau kertas fiat adalah:-
a) Matawang mestilah hanya sebagai perantara bagi tranksaksi jualbeli komoditi sebenar sahaja dan ia sendiri BUKAN komoditi.
b) Matawang mesti menjadi panduan ukuran nilai sesuatu barang keperluan.
Kedua-dua syarat di atas saling berkait, tanpa salah satu, ia akan gagal menjadi matawang yang dikehendaki oleh Islam.

Komen saya:
1. Imam Ghazali hanya menyebut kenapa emas dan perak menjadi pilihan sebagai pengukur nilai, beliau tidak menyebut lansung tentang wang fiat. Mengaitkan Imam Ghazali dengan wang fiat adalah satu kesilapan besar. Dengan mengatakan wang fiat adalah sebahagian daripada ekonomi Islam adalah kesilapan yang sangat ketara.
2. Mengatakan matawang hanya perantara dan bukan komiditi adalah satu kesilapan. Jualbeli atau al ba’i pada hakikatnya adalah al muqabalatu ainan bi ainin au malan bi malin. Iaitu pertukaran (exchange) antara barang dengan barang atau pun harta dengan harta pada wajah yang tertentu. Emas dan perak adalah barang ( ain) dan harta (mal). Pertukaran harus berlaku antara satu barang dengan barang yang lain, seperti emas dengan kambing, perak dengan ayam atau tembaga dengan baju atau sebagainya, tetapi sahnya jual beli atau riba sesuatu aqad bergantung pulak pada barang – barang yang ditukar itu termasuk barang – barang ribawi seperti emas, perak dan makanan. Dalam sejarah Islam, syiling emas dan perak disebut sebagai nuqud manakala syiling tembaga atau logam yang lain disebut sebagai fulus. Logam – logam ini digunakan dalam jualbeli. Hakikatnya ia adalah sistem barter, BARANG DITUKAR DENGAN BARANG. Imam Malik r.a. mengatakan bahawa wang atau perantara jual beli ialah sebarang barang (komoditi) /harta /ain yang bebas dipilih oleh manusia dalam transaksi. Emas, perak, tembaga, kertas apa sahaja boleh digunakan untuk tukaran barang, tetapi mesti tertakluk pada aqad – aqad yang tidak ribawi. Kalau kita menukar 1 kilo kertas surat khabar dengan ½ kilo bawang misalnya, sah jualbeli. Kertas adalah barang dan bawang juga barang. Wang kertas Fiat sekarang bukan barang, ia hanya mewakili hutang (debt), kita perlu bertanya daripada mana wang fiat ini dicipta, bagaimana pulak ia diberi nilai, atas dasar apa, disandarkan atas apa ???? apa makna 1 dolar, apa makna pulak wang kertas sah dipernilaikan dengan RM 10, apa makna RM 10 , siapa yang memberi nilai... Apa dimaksudkan Imam Ghazali ialah emas dan perak dijadikan pengukur kepada barangan lain. 1 dinar ialah 1 mithqal emas yang beratnya 4.25 gram, 1 dirham pulak 2.975 gram kerana mengikut Saidina Umar Al Khattab r.a. nisbah berat antara dinar dan dirham ialah 7 :10. Kamu letak 7 dinar disebelah dacing , kamu akan dapat menimbangnya dengan 10 dirham. Ini bukan exchange rate, tetapi penentuan berat antara dinar dan dirham. Jadi dengan berat emas 4.25 gram , kamu akan dapat seekor kambing dan dengan perak seberat 2.975gram kamu akan dapat seekor ayam. Imam Ghazali menyebut emas dan perak menjadi pengukur nilai pada beratnya emas atau perak bukan nilai yang sengaja diletakkan sesuka hati. Ini kerana fulus (wang selain emas dan perak) terdedah kepada ‘kasad’ yakni pemberhentian penggunaannya sebagai wang apabila pemerintah membatalkan harganya sehingga ia menjadi barang dagangan biasa atau tembaga biasa. Keadaan ini berlaku pada wang fiat hari ini kerana ia terdedah kepasa kasad berbeza dengan emas dan perak yang akan terus diterima manusia sebagai harga walaupun dalam bentuk serbuk sekalipun.

Adapun kedudukannya sebagai barang ribawi ini perlu perhatian lanjut kerana illah riba emas dan perak adalah ‘harga yang ghalib’ yakni diterima manusia setiap tempat dan zaman sebagai harga dan ditentukan dengannya ganti rugi barang dan sebagainya dan amat jarang berlaku نادرة الوقوع akan ada manusia menolak emas dan perak sebagai harga barang atau ganti rugi kepada barangnya yang rosak.

Imam al-Nawawi r.a berkata:

Maksudnya: “Apabila fulus itu laku seperti lakunya nuqud (emas dan perak) tidak haram padanya riba inilah yang sahih dinaskan dan dengannya dipastikan musannif (al-Syirazi) dan Jumhur(al-Syafiiah) dan padanya terhadap satu wajah syaz ianya haram diriwayatkan al-Khurasaniyyun (daripada Ashab al-Syafiiah)”. [al-Majmuk, 9/395].


Lakunya wang hari ini juga tidaklah ghalib kerana Ringgit Malaysia hanya diterima di Malaysia sahaja, Riyal Saudi hanya laku di Saudi, dan Dolar Amerika diterima di Amerika Syarikat sahaja. Jika kita membeli daripada orang awam barangan dengan Ringgit Malaysia di Amerika Syarikat , mereka tentu tidak akan menerimanya. Maka wang hari ini bukanlah harga yang ghalib dan atas dasar pandangan ini ia bukanlah barang ribawi.

Seterusnya Fractional Reserve Banking pada hakikatnya ialah mencipta wang atas angin.

Seterusnya UZAR menyambung :

Dalam bahasa mudahnya, emas dan matawang sendiri dijadikan sebagai objektif dalam sesuatu transaksi jualbeli, ia sepatutnya hanya menjadi perantara namun kini, fungsinya telah disalahgunakan sehingga menjadi barang jualan dan akhirnya menyebabkan nilainya tidak lagi stabil (fluctuate). Ini mencacatkan fungsinya yang sepatutnya dijadikan sandaran atau ukuran bagi nilai komoditi lain.

Matwang yang dijadikan sandaran nilai sepatutnya mempunyai nilai yang hampir tetap, tidak terlalu banyak berubah dan bergerak. Hanya dengan itu, inflasi dapat dikawal dan jualbeli menjadi stabil dan keadilan tersebar.

Namun apabila matawang hari ini di jadikan komoditi, nilai sendiri tidak terkawal. Selain melihat nilai matawang kertas, cuba lihat juga nilai emas hari ini, bukankah ia juga turun naik dengan agak kerap..itu tanda emas yang wujud hari ini diperlakukan secara salah oleh manusia.

Atas sebab itu, hatta jika hari ini kita sibuk menginginkan emas untuk dijadikan matawang, namun dengan sikap dan attitude yang menggangap matawang sebagai komoditi, emas dan perak itu sendri pun akan gagal berfungsi sebagai matawang yang diinginkan oleh Islam.

Komen saya :
Masalah emas dan perak dijadikan komoditi bukanlah masalah dinar dan dirham sebenarnya. Masalahnya ialah wang fiat itu sendiri. Emas dan perak diukur dengan wang fiat ,pada hal wang fiat yang sebenarnya tiada nilai. Untuk menyamakan dinar dan dirham, dengan mata wang fiat lain, RM, dollar, Euro dan sebagainya dalam permainan FOREX adalah satu kesilapan. Dinar dan dirham berfungsi dalam ekonomi sebenar (Real Economy) bukannya ekonomi kewangan (financial economy) seperti Perbankan Wang Fiat - Fractional Reserve Banking, Permainan Saham, Insuran, Deravatif atau rakan rakan seangatannya. Dinar dan dirham adalah untuk pertukaraan dan pengedaran. Maaf cakap, Dinar dan dirham tidak ada kena mengena dengan usaha kamu untuk mengislamkan Bank, Insuran, Bursa Saham dan deravatif.

Selanjutnya beliau berkata :
Sebab itulah, perlu difahami, kejayaan menjadikan emas sebagai matawang belum boleh dianggap satu kejayaan mengislamkan ekonomi sama sekali, malah masih amat jauh. Malah, apa yang lebih perlu diperbetulkan adalah sikap, kefahaman dan system regulasi kewangan dunia hari ini.

Sistem matawang emas dan perak ini pun bukanlah diperkenalkan oleh Rasulullah, malah ia telah wujud sebelum dari kebangkitan Rasulullah. Islam menerima pakai dua logam berharga itu sebagai matawang dan hanya mampu di "ISLAMKAN' apabila syarat-syarat urusniaga matawang yang digariskan oleh baginda Nabi DIPENUHI. Justeru, hanya memperjuangkan matawang emas bukan segala-galanya bagi sebuah ekonomi dan kewangan Islam.

Justeru, janganlah ada yang menyangka bahawa system kewangan Islam akan hanya menjadi benar-benar Islam apabila menggunakan emas dan perak sebagai matawang. Tidak semudah itu. Malah dengan fiat money ini juga system kewangan Islam mampu dicapai jika regulasi dan pengurusan matawang berjaya direfomasikan kepada cara yang betul, sama ada cara ia dikeluarkan, edaran, kawalan dan penggunaannya.

Komen saya :

Ibn Sina pernah berkata :-
Ini adalah dari hikmah yang dikurniakan Allah pada dua jenis logam ini (emas dan perak) dan kesukaran menemuinya (scarcity) sehingga itu ia mampu menjadi penyandar nilai usaha manusia (sebagai perolehan dan matawang),..maka jikalau boleh sifat kedua-duanya (emas dan perak) itu diperolehi dengan mudah (secara tidak hakiki seperti apa yang ada pada matawang fiat kertas), maka akan terbatallah hikmah penciptaannya oleh Allah, dan banyaklah yang boleh memilikinya sehingga menyimpannya(memilikinya) tidak sebarang erti.

Emas dan perak digunakan sejak zaman rasul rasul terdahulu, ini kita dapat lihat bagaimana Allah swt menceritakan kepada kita bagaimana Nabi Yusof a.s. dijual dengan beberapa dirham sahaja ( bidarahim). Dinar dan dirham adalah langkah pertama untuk keluar dari penjara kapitalisme , selagi kita berada dalam dunia wang kertas selagi itu kita masih terpenjara dengan krisis nilai. Bagaimana US dollar yang hanya dicetak atas angin ditukar dengan barangan – barangan yang bernilai seperti minyak, getah , kelapa sawit , makanan dan lain – lain . Ini bukan ekonomi Islam , ini adalah rompakan sebuah Negara besar keatas Negara kecil. Apa hokum jualbeli beli sedemikian ? . Dengan mengatakan dengan Fiat Money, keadilan juga dapat dicapai adalah seperti bermimpi disiang hari. Saya tidak tahu kenapa UZAR beriya iya benar mempertahankan wang kertas. Guru guru beliau kebanyakannya dari Timur Tengah dan Pakistan adalah dari aliran ekonomi moden, mewarisi fahaman Abduh dan Jamaludin Afghani. Benci kepada kapitalis barat tetapi pada masa yang sama sangat mengkagumi sistem barat. Mereka tidak faham agenda terselindung kapitalis, malah mereka diperangkap untuk mempertahankan sistem kapitalis atas nama Islam.

bersambung....

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When's the Best Time to Invest in Silver Bars?

Sumber:http://ezinearticles.com/?Whens-the-Best-Time-to-Invest-in-Silver-Bars?&id=3753853

Silver is a metal that's fast becoming valuable as a form of investment. Like gold, it serves to be an item to be used in preserving one's assets, as well as collateral in accumulating more wealth by means of engaging in other business ventures. However, spending money on silver involves timing, and if you hit the market at the right moment, then you can expect to reap high profits from your investment.

But when exactly is the right time to invest in silver? If you are new in the business, you should first educate yourself about the market trends that affect the costs of silver, so you know how to move your assets according to changing economic behaviors.

First, check the gold-dollar trend. Silver is cheaper than gold, yes, but its prices are dragged according to the prices of gold when exchanged to the dollar. When the dollar is on a slump, banks turn to gold to safeguard their assets. This becomes a good time to purchase silver, for not only is the metal's price good, the metal itself has a profitable value to hold.

Observe economic fluctuations, such as recession and inflation. In times of economic slump, the confidence of the public towards the dollar weakens, and they too begin to hold on to hard metal assets such as gold and silver. This phase also turns the precious metals economy into a bull market, thus not only gold and silver become a favorable investment, so are other metals such as platinum, palladium, lead and zinc.

See the supply-demand trends. One advantage of silver over gold is that it is used in more practical purposes such as industrial consumption. The supply of silver is also less than gold, and because of the increased demand for the said metal, its prices would go nowhere but up.

Watch for the emergence of developing economies. Developing economies, such as those which have newly emerged and those that are recovering from previous market failures, show great demand for industrial silver which they would use in different ventures such as infrastructure, consumer electronics, and other technologies. With these economies on the rise, silver will then be selling like hotcakes in the market, in turn increasing its monetary value.

There are best times to buy silver, and there are also times when it's best to have it sold. Gauging the right timing in investing in silver bars actually lies on your hands, and by knowing your investment goals as well as the current economic trends, you will be able to make a better judgment on what to do with the silver bullion bars you have.

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Silver - A Highly Versatile Metal

Sumber:http://ezinearticles.com/?Silver---A-Highly-Versatile-Metal&id=3642988

Silver for the commoner is a metal inferior to gold; but to the keen professional eye, such as financial analysts, silver is considered to be a principal monetary metal, as seen in history. Generally, silver is extensively rolled in the market because it can be utilized by diverse industries because of its strong properties. Silver is known for its divisibility, ductility, durability, strength, flexibility, thermal and electrical conductivity, and the ability to withstand extreme temperatures. This primary metal which is known for its high versatility is now utilized by major industrial players as well as in demand in the medical field and by wise investors. Indeed, there really is no substitute for silver, which makes this a major player in the investment arena.

Bullion silver is considered to be a highly appraised metal which explains why it is now seen as a major commodity in the industry. This is definitely a surefire attractive investment for those who are looking for a secure way of investing hard-earned money. There is simply no substitute for silver in this area. This is a guaranteed win-win situation for every investor or trader who is potentially looking into silver bullions as primary investment unit. Aside from its contribution to turning up the economic gears globally, this is also used in the medical field. This may come as a surprise to us why a metal such as silver could have any use whatsoever in the medical arena. Many people are not aware of the microbicidal capacity or antibacterial quality. This is now being used in healthcare products such as the wound care dressings that are used for treatment of cuts and wounds. These products have a layer of silver component which is beneficial towards preventing any secondary infections which could hamper recovery of patients. The very famous "Silver Bullet" is also being used for treatment of patients who are recovering from burns. In a world where there is a growing concern for spread of diseases that are microbial in origin, silver is now being tapped to help in prevention and treatment of these particular life-threatening diseases that is creating global cause of concern.

Another use for silver is in the industrial sector; this is generally used for making a variety of furniture or fixtures as well as making accessories and different industrial products in the trade sector. There is a great demand for silver bars at present which makes it a highly volatile commodity and is a great investment to pile up your assets. Silver Bullion is omnipresent, so to speak. One metal that is definitely hard to miss.

Wendy Robertson has years of experience dealing with financial and investment industries. Over the years, Wendy has worked as a freelance consultant and has dedicated her career advising wealthy families, foundations and the public to invest on silver bullions and silver art rounds as a safe and worry free investment.

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Silver Versus Gold - The Fearless Forecast

Sumber:http://ezinearticles.com/?Silver-Versus-Gold---The-Fearless-Forecast&id=3712767

Silver is one metal that's making the waves these days thanks to its increasing worth in the market. While gold continues to be profitable as an asset, silver is also running fast in becoming the next standard when it comes to precious metals, and in a few years' time, it will be can be worth as much as gold. But how can this be, considering silver has always been cheaper than gold? Below are some factors to consider:

The demand for silver bullion continues to rise since it first became a trend back in 2009. Selling for as much as $11.00 an ounce in May, it rose to as much as $19.00 per ounce by the end of the year. The demand for silver in terms of industrial purposes is also expected to carry out the metal's price in 2010, thus making it more valuable in the succeeding months. A good scenario to look at is the situation of recovering economies such as China, where their demand for industrial silver has gradually increased since last year.

Silver blends with changing trends. In terms of the gold-silver market, as the price of gold goes higher, the monetary value of silver goes up as well. However, unlike gold, which easily gets affected by the dollar slump, silver even becomes stronger in times of unstable economic behavior, such as inflation risks and US deficit, as not only does its industrial demand remains intact. Also, economic fluctuations force investors to hold more on to their metal assets, such as silver and other precious metals.

According to analysts, silver stands a great chance in becoming more valuable in improving economies, and it benefits from almost the same market drivers as gold. It may not hold a major reserve in central banks, its demand for investment has increased rapidly with the same reasons as for gold. Unlike gold which has been purchased and kept mainly for its image of luxury, silver has gained distinction for mainly industrial usage. Because of its variety of applications particularly in emerging technologies, it is expected that silver will be the top metal to be purchased for different commercial and industrial investments, not only in recovering economies, but also in newly developing markets.

Finally, currency analysts find the resurgence of the dollar to bring a great impact on the value of silver. As the dollar regains its strength in 2010, investors wane from purchasing gold bullion.

The demand for silver bullion bars and silver art rounds remains steady, and not substantially affected by the falling price of gold.

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Plan-Do-Check-Action (PDCA)

Sumber:http://financial-planning-diy.blogspot.com/2010/02/plan-do-check-action-pdca.html
Have you ever come across the idea of PDCA? Well, I got this idea during the implementation of ISO 9000 of my company way back to the year 1997. You may puzzle what the heck is this ISO going to do with financial planning? Anyway, the main point here is not talking about ISO but the idea of PDCA.

Plan
We always hear that if we “fail to plan”, then we “plan to fail”, isn’t it? Yes, it is and this is why planning plays extreme important role in our journey to success and it should come first in ourfinancial planning. In short, a good plan will provide a clear road map that shows us where and how we should go.

We all have financial needs. Some of these needs require the support from certain monetary value that requires time to accumulate. Therefore, in our plan, we should first set the priority of these needs, set the time frame and decide how we are going to reach our “destinations”. Just like a road map that shows you how to get from point A, on what transportation, so that you are able to arrive point B on time.

Do
A plan means nothing without implementation. They are just wordings on a piece of paper or two. That is it. Therefore, we need to execute our plan in order to make it alive. Of course, at this stage, you should always bear your plan in mind as it always reminds you your target and time frame.

Check
After sometime, we need to review the progress of our plan. To be effective, it should be analyze on regular interval to ensure our journey is on the right track. Forfinancial planning, we have to study, against your benchmark, the effectiveness of our asset allocation, the performance of our investment, sufficiency of insurance coverage etc on timely basis.

Action
Of course, your plan will give you some clues on which part need to be adjusted. Again, action of adjustment is required to ensure you are moving toward to your destination. The adjustment may not necessary only on your “how to get there” (i.e. your methods) and “when to get” (i.e. your time frame), but also “what to get” (i.e. your overall plan).

I have been practicing PDCA for years and it works. By having these steps in mind, what we need to do next is to refine the process through continual learning.

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Emas Sebagai Penyimpan Nilai

Sekarang adalah musim membeli emas bagi pihak yang meminatinya.

Namun terdapat 2 jenis penggemar emas.
Ada yang menganggapnya sebagai pelaburan, ada yang mengganggapnya sebagai simpanan.

Saya adalah yang lebih cenderung ke arah simpanan berbanding pelaburan.

Harga emas, membuak pada peratusan yang agak tinggi beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini adalah disebabkan oleh terbongkarnya konspirasi penekanan terhadap harga emas boleh pihak tertentu.

Bihak Bank Persekutuan Amerika dikatakan menyembunyikan fakta sebenar berapa banyak emas yng disimpan, tetapi 'meminjamkan' emas kepada pasaran emas supaya wujud bekalan berlebihan. Ini digunakan untuk mengekalkan nilai dollar pada paras yang tinggi walaupun mereka mengeluarkan dollar pada kadar yang tinggi.

Dollar yang tinggi membolehkan mereka membeli komoditi import daripada negara lain dengan menggunakan kertas sahaja.

Berbalik kepada persoalan simpanan atau pelaburan. Sekiranya tidak wujud tekanan terhadap harga emas, emas perlu dimiliki sebagai rizab bagi sesebuah keluarga atau individu. Ini disebabkan kerana sifat wang kertas itu yang sentiasa mengembang.

Secara umumnya semua orang faham bahawa apabila wang kertas dicetak, nilainya akan turun.

Namun satu perkara yang perlu difahami ialah penurunan nilai wang kertas tidak berlaku sejurus sahaja dicetak.

Pada tahun 1982, keseluruhan wang Ringgit yang di dalam kitaran dan dideposit hanyalah 12.47 bilion.
Pada laporan BNM yang terkini nilai itu meningkat kepada lebih 200 bilion.

Jika kita bandingkan, bilangan wang ringgit telah bertambah 16 kali ganda atau 1600%.

Namun harga barang tidak meningkat 16 kali ganda.

Belum lagi.

Secara kasar, berdasarkan pemahaman ringgit, jika wang dicetak lebih, nilainya turun.
Namun apa yang berlaku ialah nilai lambat turun, tetapi tetap akan turun.

Pembuakan harga emas dalam USD adalah berkait dengan bekalan wang Amerika.

Di Malaysia, kita masih terikut tukaran asing untuk mendapatkan harga emas.

Akan tetapi apabila "Ringgit" dibandingkan dengan emas yang berada di Malaysia, maka akan tahulah nanti berapa nilai ringgit yang sebenar.

Pada kehidupan harian, nilai yang ada pada ringgit itu merosot setiap tahun, pada kadar yang sedikit.
"inflasi 3% , apa kisah"

Namun inflasi sebenar adalah kadar yang lebih tinggi.
Sistem kawalan harga yang membuatkan ianya kelihatan rendah.

Satu hari nanti ia akan membuak jua. Tanda tanda awal ialah "tidak mampu tanggung subsidi".
Pengsubsidian adalah kaedah menyembunyikan inflasi sebenar.

Fungsi emas adalah menyimpan nilai sebenar.

Andai kata 20 gram emas mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti.
Maka kalau ada krisis kewangan bagaimana pun, 20 gram emas itu masih mampu untuk menghantar anak ke universiti, walaupun ketika itu 20 gram emas harganya RM 10,000.


Menurut teori ahli kewangan yang tersohor, supaya menyediakan rizab kewangan beberapa bulan gaji.
Maka rizab itu perlu disediakan juga dalam bentuk emas.

Memang kalau boleh tidak mahu ringgit itu runtuh, namun ianya bukanlah sesuatu yang mustahil untuk berlaku.

Ketika British memerintah tanah melayu, matawang kertas Straits Dollar digunakan, namun apabila Jepun memerintah Kertas itu tidak lagi laku. Kemudian British datang balik, wang kertas jepun pula tidak laku.

Apa terjadi kalau hasil titik peluh disimpan dalam bentuk wang kertas, lenyap sekelip mata?

Maka, menyimpan emas, adalah menyimpan hasil titik peluh, supaya nilainya tidak merosot akibat membuakan inflasi atau krisis kewangan.
Sumber:http://hasbullah.pit.my/2010/02/emas-sebagai-penyimpan-nilai.html

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Sejuk Hangat Panas Pemeluwapan dan Hujan

Sumber:http://www.pakdi.my/blog/sejuk-hangat-panas-pemeluwapan-dan-hujan/
Kelakar pula bila saya baca kembali tajuk di atas. Maafkan saya pakar istilah bahasa dan ahli akademik, saya cuma mahu cuba menulis dalam bahasa mudah tentang situasi ekonomi yang cold, warm, hot, bubbles dan rain. Sekiranya ada istilah yang lebih tepat dalam Bahasa Melayu, sila perbetulkan saya.

Keadaan dan perkembangan ekonomi adalah sama seperti tajuk di atas. Baik dulu, kini dan selamanya, ia pasti dan akan berlaku sebegitu jua. Cuma yang berbeza adalah watak-watak di dalam situasi ekonomi tersebut.

Ekonomi yang sejuk adalah ekonomi yang tidak baik. Anda bayangkan musim winter. Ia menyukarkan pergerakan. Binatang berhibernasi.

Ekonomi yang hangat adalah ekonomi yang paling baik. Ia tidak berapa sejuk. Ia juga tidak berapa panas. Semua orang seronok. Angin sepoi-sepoi bahasa. Hawa yang selesa.

Ekonomi yang panas pula adalah ekonomi yang kurang baik. Walaupun cuaca panas, tetapi proses hidrasi juga berlalu dengan pantas. Nak bersukan pun tidak selesa. Siapa suka main bola sepak tengah hari buta?

Ekonomi yang meluwap pula adalah ekonomi yang sudah ke penghujung. Bahaya sudah menanti. Ini kes hidrasi yang tidak terkawal. Orang jadi tidak tentu arah. Panasnya sudah maksimum sehingga air membentuk buih wap.

Ekonomi yang hujan adalah ekonomi yang merudum. Semua orang mahu berlindung. Bayangkan dalam satu padang bola terbuka, hanya VVIP dan beberapa kerat yang lain sahaja yang dapat menyelit dalam khemah utama apabila hujan turun dengan tiba-tiba.

Analoginya begini. Kita ambil buah kelapa sebagai contoh. Perniagaan kelapa di daerah Semua Boleh.

Satu hari, bekalan buah kelapa terlalu banyak. Tetapi tiada permintaan. Permintaan yang biasa adalah datang dari penggemar masak lomak pedas cili api dan gulai utara. Pembekal kelapa pening kepala. Peladang kelapa pun pening kepala. Peraih kelapa pun pening kepala. Apa la nak jadi dengan perniagaan kelapa. Akhirnya, ramai bungkus, kena saman hutang dan buka perniagaan lain. [Cold]

Pada saat orang tidak mahukan kelapa, tiba-tiba ada yang mula memborong kelapa secara senyap. Dia beli kelapa sikit-sikit. Tak naik lori. Tapi naik van buruk. Justeru, tidak ada siapa yang tahu lambakan kelapa itu sudah pun dibeli. Pembekal, peraih dan peladang yang masih kekal dalam perniagaan mula tersenyum. Mereka tahu ada beberapa orang mula membeli sikit-sikit tetapi konsisten. Mereka tidak tahu kenapa tetapi apa mereka peduli, yang penting kelapa mereka terjual walaupun dengan harga murah. [Cold reduce]

Tidak lama kemudian, kelapa semakin mempunyai permintaan. Oh, musim kahwin sudah sampai. Kerisik banyak nak guna, nak buat rendang. Pembekal, peraih dan peladang kelapa mula naikkan harga. Permintaan sudah ada. Beberapa orang yang membeli kelapa sedikit dan konsisten itu tadi pun mula menjual kelapa kepada orang ramai. Pelaburannya mula menampakkan hasil. [Warm]

Harga kelapa semakin mahal. Pelabur kelapa pula sudah mula beli beberapa lori 3 tan dan sudah pakai Mercedes baru. Ramai pula yang bekerja dengan pelabur kelapa. Dan semakin ramai berminat untuk membuka perniagaan kelapa. Santan Kelapa Enterprise. Kelapa Muda & Kawan-Kawan. Kelapa Emas Sdn Bhd. Koperasi Kelapa Hijau. DeCoco Network. Semua Kelapa Bhd. Mana tidaknya, bulan puasa sudah hampir. [Hot]

Abu, seorang pengusaha nenas cemburu melihat kawan-kawan yang berniaga kelapa mula bertukar kereta baru. Dia pun mahu join sekali. Harga kelapa parut sudah berharga RM 2.50 sebiji. Raya pun sudah dekat. Siapa mahu makan nenas waktu raya? Dia pun mula tanam kelapa, daftar syarikat kelapa, pinjam duit sana sini untuk bukak kedai, tanam kelapa, beli kelapa dan sebagainya. Kini, Abu Kelapa sudah datang. Lupakan Abu Nenas yang lama. [Bubble]

Rupanya bukan Abu sahaja yang sebegitu. Mereka yang tidak pernah tahu menahu pasal kelapa pun mula minat nak berbisnes kelapa. Minah, Sally, Samad, Raju, Chin, Chau, Sam, Dol semuanya berminat nak berbisnes kelapa. Siapa tidak meleleh tengok Din Loklak sudah kaya raya dengan jual kelapa sahaja. Harga kelapa parut mencecah RM 4.00 sebiji pun mereka yakin ada pembeli. [Bubble]

Lantas mereka mula memborong kelapa sebanyak mungkin. Duit Tabung Haji keluar. Duit bawah bantal keluar. Duit dalam bank keluar. Pinjam duit lagi. Yang penting mereka semua mahu jadi penjual kelapa! Kalau Din LokLak boleh kaya raya kenapa tidak mereka? Mereka pun nak jadi pembekal, peraih dan pelabur kelapa. [Bubble]

Hari ini dilaporkan RM 5 sebiji kelapa parut! Mereka mula mencongak keuntungan. “Kalau boleh naik RM 10 sebiji ni.” “Kalau naik sampai RM 15 sebiji …” Pakcik Kayo! [Bubble]

Mereka dengar pula cerita orang kampung yang Penghulu Daerah Semua Boleh akan mewajibkan semua rumah masak rendang, bubur, masak lomak pedas dan gulai utara dan air kelapa segar sahaja untuk hidangan hari Raya. Wow! Ini sudah bagus. [Bubble]

Nak dijadikan cerita, pegawai kesihatan datang ke daerah mereka dan memberitahu jangan makan santan banyak sangat. Berminyak. Berlemak. Ada Kolestrol. Nanti sakit. Jagalah kesihatan. [Black Cloud]

Busted! Harga kelapa turun mendadak. Semua orang mahu jual kelapa yang mereka miliki. Tetapi pada waktu itu semua orang memiliki kelapa dengan harga yang tinggi. Lalu harga semakin rendah. RM 4. RM 2.50. RM 1.70. RM 1.20. RM 0.70 RM 0.35 … ! Ramai orang bankrap sebab berhutang. Syarikat terpaksa buang pekerja. Ramai orang mula menganggur. [Rain]

Tapi Din LokLak selamat. Sebab dia mula memborong kelapa dari RM 0.05 sebiji dan mula berhenti memborong apabila harga mencecah RM 2.00 sebiji. Dan dia menjual dan menghabiskan semua stok kelapa semasa harga kelapa mencecah RM 5.70 beberapa hari lepas.

… Tiada siapa peduli kelapa … … … Bekalan kelapa semakin banyak … Syarikat Kelapa Din LokLak mula mencari bekalan semula .[Cold]

Inilah yang telah berlaku dan akan terus berlaku dalam dunia perniagaan dan pelaburan.

Tulip Dutchmania Craze [1634-1637]
South Sea Bubble [1711]
Florida Real Estate Craze [1926]
Great Depression [1929]
Black Monday [19 Oct. 1987]
Asian Crisis [1997]
Dot com Bubble [2000-2002]

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